Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 19.664781 22.829588 26.621567 31.585897 38.048991 4.638304e+01 58.309432
2025-01-26 17.704906 22.134792 28.105774 37.119646 51.156952 7.381891e+01 117.689561
2025-02-02 15.785311 20.663070 27.754567 39.568704 60.644409 1.018937e+02 210.800630
2025-02-09 13.489386 18.102935 25.097480 37.436227 61.378171 1.147831e+02 295.492290
2025-02-16 12.489508 17.228096 24.758403 38.957675 69.508554 1.507165e+02 561.112959
2025-02-23 11.429359 16.075319 23.712507 38.845447 74.153833 1.833011e+02 1040.001886
2025-03-02 10.549978 15.080993 22.744988 38.598492 78.407810 2.212464e+02 2227.518660
2025-03-09 9.925854 14.420022 22.243800 39.164469 85.164970 2.821240e+02 8545.696365
2025-03-16 9.116998 13.358080 20.855033 37.464622 84.677434 3.097905e+02 33464.460246
2025-03-23 8.606998 12.756528 20.245831 37.401380 89.367543 3.818632e+02 NaN
2025-03-30 7.947248 11.835618 18.915470 35.366400 86.610233 3.984979e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 7.318401 10.925017 17.520419 32.954901 81.713396 3.908047e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 6.757106 10.123651 16.320933 30.982585 78.319905 3.985568e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 6.939862 10.668580 17.867650 36.327651 106.976793 9.883921e+02 NaN
2025-04-27 6.819395 10.642355 18.235341 38.697333 126.446816 2.067000e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 6.377352 9.974753 17.150033 36.632885 121.696961 2.220888e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.227066 9.851547 17.239788 38.105922 138.456388 5.330309e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 5.982813 9.527573 16.845047 37.997296 145.983993 1.104861e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 5.750921 9.211541 16.435643 37.758248 152.815269 2.986408e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 5.583866 9.011686 16.272755 38.306067 166.627201 1.132360e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 5.305178 8.572540 15.510437 36.660382 161.453425 2.490058e+07 NaN
2025-06-15 5.133834 8.339437 15.216453 36.599132 170.166751 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 4.871305 7.909148 14.420089 34.627447 160.177414 NaN NaN